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Friday, July 27, 2012

DEBKAfile: Friday July 27, 2012 Av 8, 5772

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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 26, 2012, 1:31 PM (GMT+02:00)
Netanyahu and Steinitz deliver an austerity package
Netanyahu and Steinitz deliver an austerity package

 

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz are rightly using a necessary austerity package as a lever for getting the country on track for a war economy, without saying so. They avoid discussing the consequences and duration of the new measures because they can’t tell how long a war, which they believe may be close, will last or how it will end.DEBKAfile estimates that they are quietly building a $25-30 strategic financial reserve for the worst-case scenario.

 

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Tehran Strikes at Heart of Saudi Intel 
Iran accuses new Saudi intelligence chief Bandar of Damascus bombings. 
more
Assad unmoved by US, Israeli Warnings 
Keeps his chemical weapons up his sleeve and ready for use. 
more
The New Threat of Stealth Bombers 
In Burgas, no trace, no clues, no identities and no claims of responsibility. 
more
  



  

 
Headlines
Big Russian fleet nears Syria. Iran to fight regime change as foreign forces pile up
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 25, 2012, 1:31 PM (GMT+02:00)
Russian Admiral Chabanenko warship
Russian Admiral Chabanenko warship

 

Foreign forces were piling up on Syrian borders Wednesday, July 25, bringing closer a confrontation which could spur the Assad regime into making good on its threat to use chemical weapons against “external aggression.” The immediacy of the peril, DEBKAfile reports, has speeded the arrival of Russian warships to Syria to counter a potential Western, Arab or Israeli assault on the embattled country. London sources predict British military intervention, while Tehran is ready to fight off any attempt at regime change in Damascus.

 

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The Burgos bomber was experienced and had accomplices – Bulgarian PM
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 24, 2012, 8:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
Bulgarian PM Borisov and US anti-terror adviser Brennan
Bulgarian PM Borisov and US anti-terror adviser Brennan

 

The suicide bomber who killed six people in an attack on an Israeli bus at Burgas airport  July 18, had accomplices, was “extremely experienced” and may have entered Bulgaria from Europe’s Schengen passport-free area, said Bulgarian Prime Minister Boygok Borisov. He spoke Tuesday, July 24, at a new conference with visiting US presidential anti-terror adviser John Brennan. The European Union turned down Israel’s request to blacklist Hizballah as a terrorist organization after Israel blamed it and Iran for the attack.

 

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Israel’s security chiefs rally to disperse war clouds with Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 24, 2012, 6:17 PM (GMT+02:00)
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz

 

The Defense Ministry’s Amos Gilead and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz administered tranquilizers Tuesday, July 24, to allay fears of war with Syria, Hizballah and Iran. Gilead said that the Assad regime was in full control of Syria’s unconventional weapons, while Gen. Gantz indicated that Israel has no plans for attacking Syria. Damascus’ threat of chemical warfare against external attacks was hence not applicable. By contradicting Israel’s prime minister and defense minister, the two security chiefs sowed confusion in the Israeli street.

 

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More articles below
 
  
 
IDF: Syrian chemical threat targets Israel. Obama warns Assad against “tragic mistake”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 23, 2012, 11:09 PM (GMT+02:00)
Fighting in Aleppo, Syria's second city
Fighting in Aleppo, Syria's second city

 

Senior Israeli military officers, referring to the Syrian foreign ministry statement Monday, July 23, that Syria would only use chemical weapons against “external aggression” said this was a direct threat by the Assad regime to turn those weapons against Israel. There was no denial of their potential transfer to Hizballah against which Israel has vowed to use force.DEBKAfile: Assad keeps carte blanche for chemical warfare. Obama warns Assad he will be held accountable if he makes tthe “tragic mistake” of using chemical weapons.

 

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Two hours for Syrian chemical weapons to reach Lebanon. Four armies prepared
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 22, 2012, 10:47 PM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian WMD-capable missiles
Syrian WMD-capable missiles

 

Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian armies and US Middle East forces were on the ready Sunday, July 22, in case Syrian chemical weapons moved toward Lebanon,DEBKAfile reports. Acting in unison, those armies are watching out for the slightest movement, because it would take just two hours to cover the distance from Syria to the Hizballah-controlled Bakaa Valley of Lebanon. Their arrival there would mean a war. So the IDF prefers to stop the arsenal in its tracks before it reaches the Lebanese border.

 

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Assad rebuilds fighting command, retaliates against Turkey
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 22, 2012, 11:30 AM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian tanks in Damascus
Syrian tanks in Damascus

 

Assad quickly recovered from the loss of his four top allies last Wednesday, July 18 and replaced them with a new command for fighting the rebels headed by his brother Gen. Maher Assad, DEBKAfile reports exclusively. Gen. Ali Mamloukh is new General Security Service head; Gen. Hafez Makhlouf military commander of Damascus; and Gen. Ali Hassan chief of the Alawite Shabiha militia. Assad retaliated against Turkey by letting Kurdish PKK rebels fighting Turkey from Iraq set up bases in Syria, from which they launched their first attack.

 

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A Hizballah suicide terror revival launched by the Burgas bus bombing 
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 20, 2012, 1:29 PM (GMT+02:00)
Suicide bomber awaits his prey
Suicide bomber awaits his prey

 

The suicide bombing attack in Bulgaria which left five Israelis dead and more than 30 injured on July 18 is seen by Western intelligence and counter-terror sources as marking Hizballah’s regression to its old tactics. After a 17-year break, the Lebanese terrorist group is again sending suicide killers to murder Israelis and Jews. Israel’s counter-terror agencies failed to pick up on this. While they are catching up, Iran and Hizballah will take the chance for more violence - unless Israel restores its deterrence with a firm hand.

 

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Anti-Israel attacks to mount in sync with Syrian war, looming strike on Iran
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 19, 2012, 9:54 AM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli victims of Bulgarian bus blast
Israeli victims of Bulgarian bus blast

 

Iran, Syria and Hizballah resolve to up their terror assaults on “strategic” Israeli targets in step with the worsening war situation in Syria and a looming attack on Iran’s nuclear program,DEBKAfile reports.
The Bulgarian bus attack was a “local” target – although seven Israelis were killed and more than 30 injured – whereas an Israeli plane or diplomat would be a “strategic” target. Nevertheless, US President Barack Obama and Israeli prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu agreed that Israel will not react for now.

 

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If Damascus falls, Israel and its gas fields feared threatened
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report 
July 17, 2012, 2:32 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

The fall of Damascus may be drawn-out, bloody and excruciating. It will also have wide regional repercussions, asDEBKAfile shows in this exclusive video, because neither the Assad regime nor Iran will take it lying down. Some sources report Syrian chemical weapons have already been used against rebel concentrations.

 

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly    A sampling from past issues
Putin Enlists China and Iran against US Interests
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #546
June 21, 2012
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama

 

Russian PresidentVladimir Putin started putting his plans for Russia to displace the US at key Middle East points at the Moscow nuclear talks and the G20 summit in Mexico where he enlisted China and Iran to defeat Washington’s plans. Starting out with a scheme of revenge for Libya, his horizon has since widened to blocking US PresidentBarack Obama's Arab Revolt objectives and his policies for Syria and Iran.

 

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Saudi cash + oil for Chinese Nuclear Missiles
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #545
June 15, 2012
Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles
Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles

 

The Saudis offered Beijing $60 billion plus an oil bonanza for a single nuclear warhead.  China has agreed in principle to sell the Saudis medium-range Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles in return for the cash and/or having its oil requirements for the next 23 years guaranteed by Riyadh. The deal was negotiated by Saudi National Security Adviser Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie.

 

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Egyptian Brotherhood starts building Iran-Style Revolutionary Guards
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #544
June 8, 2012
Ahmed Shafiq and Mohammed Morsi
Ahmed Shafiq and Mohammed Morsi

 

The Brotherhood's Islamist militias, which first put in an appearance in Egypt's presidential election campaign last month to disrupt Ahmed Shafiq's rallies, quickly took on a national character. They then formed into hierarchical structures on the lines of the paramilitary militias which surfaced in the early years of Iran’s Shiite revolution in the early 1980s and evolved into Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

 

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Analysis
US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 28, 2012, 11:12 AM (GMT+02:00)
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf

 

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, DEBKAfile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

 

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Gantz: IDF and other armies ready to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 26, 2012, 5:30 PM (GMT+02:00)
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington

 

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and conflicting perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak. Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task. He commented Thursday that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

 

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Tripoli clashes after direct orders from Assad to Lebanese army
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 14, 2012, 10:54 AM (GMT+02:00)
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict

 

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

 

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Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill 
DEBKAfile Special Report
April 2, 2012, 7:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. DEBKAfile: Moscow and Tehran suspect that the US- Israeli-Greek air-naval exercise codenamed Noble Dina which is in progress across an unusually broad stretch of E. Mediterranean is meant to rehearse war action in the Persian Gulf.